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| Jameslist James Spotting |
The 'Helicopter Economics
Investing Guide' is meant to
help educate people on how
to make profitable investing
choices in the current
economic environment. We
have coined this term to
describe the current monetary
and fiscal policies of the U.S.
government, which involve
unprecedented money
printing. This is the official
blog of the New York Investing
meetup.
Investing Guide' is meant to
help educate people on how
to make profitable investing
choices in the current
economic environment. We
have coined this term to
describe the current monetary
and fiscal policies of the U.S.
government, which involve
unprecedented money
printing. This is the official
blog of the New York Investing
meetup.
© 2010 realefinancemedia.corp - all rights reserved
realefinance.on the money
bulls and bears trampling your financial plans...
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Daryl Montgomery--08/12/2010
The U.S. trade deficit widened to $49.9 billion in June instead of improving as expected. This
figure was missing from the second quarter GDP report and could mean a downward revision to
1.3% from the originally reported 2.4%. The lower GDP number means almost all of the growth in
Q2 came from inventory accumulation and not from increased economic activity.
....read article
The U.S. trade deficit widened to $49.9 billion in June instead of improving as expected. This
figure was missing from the second quarter GDP report and could mean a downward revision to
1.3% from the originally reported 2.4%. The lower GDP number means almost all of the growth in
Q2 came from inventory accumulation and not from increased economic activity.
....read article
This Week's Selling Indicates Bear Market Still in Play--Daryl
Montgomery--08/13/2010
All four major U.S. stock indices began to form a bear market trading pattern during July. The
rally that started early in the month paused the formation of that pattern, but didn't reverse it.
Then the selling this week added more evidence that stocks are in a bear environment.
...read article
Montgomery--08/13/2010
All four major U.S. stock indices began to form a bear market trading pattern during July. The
rally that started early in the month paused the formation of that pattern, but didn't reverse it.
Then the selling this week added more evidence that stocks are in a bear environment.
...read article
The Wall Street Journal published an article entitled, “Is a Crash Coming? 10 Reason to Be
Cautious” on Friday, August 13th. While a crash is certainly possible, the reasons given by the
Journal have little to do with why one could occur....read article
Cautious” on Friday, August 13th. While a crash is certainly possible, the reasons given by the
Journal have little to do with why one could occur....read article
Daryl Montgomery--08/16/2010
Second quarter GDP figures show that the Japanese economy has fallen behind China's and is
now only the third largest in the world. Japan has engaged in 20 years of massive government
stimulus programs and kept interest rates low, but this has failed to reignite GDP growth. Instead,
its economy continues to slowly sink...read article
Second quarter GDP figures show that the Japanese economy has fallen behind China's and is
now only the third largest in the world. Japan has engaged in 20 years of massive government
stimulus programs and kept interest rates low, but this has failed to reignite GDP growth. Instead,
its economy continues to slowly sink...read article
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Industrial Production: July Up, But June Is Now Negative--Daryl
Montgomery--08/17/2010
The Fed reported that industrial production was up 1.1% in July and this got all the media
headline attention. Stocks rallied on the bullish news implying economic recovery. Buried in the
to minus 0.5%....read article
Montgomery--08/17/2010
The Fed reported that industrial production was up 1.1% in July and this got all the media
headline attention. Stocks rallied on the bullish news implying economic recovery. Buried in the
to minus 0.5%....read article
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Montgomery--08/18/2010
Government bond yields are dropping throughout the world. The U.S. 2-year, the German 5-year,
10-year and 30-year, and the French 10-year have all hit record lows recently. The Japanese
10-year is back below 1.0% and has fallen as low as 0.90%. The UK 10-year yield has been
dropping for months and is only 17 basis points above its Credit Crisis low..read article
Government bond yields are dropping throughout the world. The U.S. 2-year, the German 5-year,
10-year and 30-year, and the French 10-year have all hit record lows recently. The Japanese
10-year is back below 1.0% and has fallen as low as 0.90%. The UK 10-year yield has been
dropping for months and is only 17 basis points above its Credit Crisis low..read article
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Some Recovery, Half a Million More Unemployed Last Week
Daryl Montgomery--08/19/2010
After more than a year of economic 'recovery', the Department of Labor reported weekly
unemployment claims rose to 500,000 last week. Any number at 400,000 or higher indicates
recession. The last time weekly claims were below that number was the week of July 17, 2007 -
more than three years ago. ...read article
Daryl Montgomery--08/19/2010
After more than a year of economic 'recovery', the Department of Labor reported weekly
unemployment claims rose to 500,000 last week. Any number at 400,000 or higher indicates
recession. The last time weekly claims were below that number was the week of July 17, 2007 -
more than three years ago. ...read article
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FDIC Swan Song: 8 Banks a Week--Daryl Montgomery--08/22/2010
The FDIC closed down eight banks last week bringing this year's total to 118 so far. Included in
this week's closures was the notorious ShoreBank in Chicago. In a separate report, the U.S.
Treasury has disclosed that the Obama administration's HAMP (Home Affordable Mortgage
Program) seems to be rapidly falling apart. This could further weaken the U.S. banking
system......read article
The FDIC closed down eight banks last week bringing this year's total to 118 so far. Included in
this week's closures was the notorious ShoreBank in Chicago. In a separate report, the U.S.
Treasury has disclosed that the Obama administration's HAMP (Home Affordable Mortgage
Program) seems to be rapidly falling apart. This could further weaken the U.S. banking
system......read article
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Japan Leads Global Stock Market Drop--Daryl Montgomery
The Nikkei closed at 8995 last night, 77% below its final price in December 1989. The rising value
of the yen is what is causing the stock market drop. The yen just hit a 15-year high against the
dollar and 9-year high against the euro. A richly valued yen is a big negative for Japan's
export-based economy. ....read article
The Nikkei closed at 8995 last night, 77% below its final price in December 1989. The rising value
of the yen is what is causing the stock market drop. The yen just hit a 15-year high against the
dollar and 9-year high against the euro. A richly valued yen is a big negative for Japan's
export-based economy. ....read article
July Durable Goods Add Support to Recession View--Daryl
Montgomery--08/25/2010
After an existing home sales report yesterday revealed that the U.S. housing market is currently
in worse shape than it was at the bottom of the Credit Crisis/Great Recession, July's durable
goods report today further confirmed that the U.S. economy is sinking into a recession. ...read
article
Montgomery--08/25/2010
After an existing home sales report yesterday revealed that the U.S. housing market is currently
in worse shape than it was at the bottom of the Credit Crisis/Great Recession, July's durable
goods report today further confirmed that the U.S. economy is sinking into a recession. ...read
article
Inventories of unsold homes rose by an even greater 40% and were at their highest point in over
a decade. A spokesman for real estate industry group NAR described the market's disastrous
performance, which took place in every region of the country, as a "pause"....read article
a decade. A spokesman for real estate industry group NAR described the market's disastrous
performance, which took place in every region of the country, as a "pause"....read article
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Q2 GDP Up Only 0.7% Without Government Spending
Daryl Montgomery--08/27/2010
The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised second quarter GPD growth down from 2.4% to 1.6%
today. Stimulus spending peaked in the second quarter and despite the big boost that it
provided, the U.S. economy only expanded at a rate that indicates the U.S. standard of living
isn't declining further.read article
Daryl Montgomery--08/27/2010
The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised second quarter GPD growth down from 2.4% to 1.6%
today. Stimulus spending peaked in the second quarter and despite the big boost that it
provided, the U.S. economy only expanded at a rate that indicates the U.S. standard of living
isn't declining further.read article
Japan and U.S. Offer More 'Stimulus You Can Believe In'--Daryl
Montgomery--08/30/2010
program to financial institutions after talking up Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's statement on Friday
that the Fed "will do all that it can" to support the economy. Japanese stocks and U.S. stocks
respectively rallied strongly on these essentially negative news items....read article
Montgomery--08/30/2010
program to financial institutions after talking up Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's statement on Friday
that the Fed "will do all that it can" to support the economy. Japanese stocks and U.S. stocks
respectively rallied strongly on these essentially negative news items....read article
Daryl Montgomery--08/31/2010
U.S. stocks are set to close out August with the Dow Industrials dropping more than 4% on the
month. If the economic numbers continue to indicate a possible double-dip recession however,
stocks are likely to fall by a much greater amount in September..read article
U.S. stocks are set to close out August with the Dow Industrials dropping more than 4% on the
month. If the economic numbers continue to indicate a possible double-dip recession however,
stocks are likely to fall by a much greater amount in September..read article
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Daryl Montgomery--09/01/2010
Despite a number of economic reports at the beginning of the month indicating continued
problems, stocks rallied strongly on September 1st. The Nikkei was up over 1% and the major
European markets were up between 1% and 2%. The U.S. markets were up over 2% in morning
trade.....read article
Despite a number of economic reports at the beginning of the month indicating continued
problems, stocks rallied strongly on September 1st. The Nikkei was up over 1% and the major
European markets were up between 1% and 2%. The U.S. markets were up over 2% in morning
trade.....read article
indicate a contradictory view of the U.S. employment situation.
The weekly unemployment claims number was 472,000 for the last week of August, almost
exactly the same as the 470,000 figure for the first week of January. Payroll processing firm ADP
predicted yesterday that the U.S. private sector lost jobs in August because of a big
employment drop in the 'goods producing sector'.
At almost the same time, the ISM manufacturing index was released and indicated substantial
hiring took place in U.S. manufacturing companies in August. Adding more confusion to the mix,
outplacement firm Challenger, Grey, and Christmas said there was a sharp drop in planned
layoffs in August.
The rule of thumb for recession is a weekly claims level over 400,000. This has existed
continuously in the data for over two years now. Eight months into 2010, the only difference from
the beginning of the year is that the four-week moving average is now 20,000 higher at 485,500.
...read article
The weekly unemployment claims number was 472,000 for the last week of August, almost
exactly the same as the 470,000 figure for the first week of January. Payroll processing firm ADP
predicted yesterday that the U.S. private sector lost jobs in August because of a big
employment drop in the 'goods producing sector'.
At almost the same time, the ISM manufacturing index was released and indicated substantial
hiring took place in U.S. manufacturing companies in August. Adding more confusion to the mix,
outplacement firm Challenger, Grey, and Christmas said there was a sharp drop in planned
layoffs in August.
The rule of thumb for recession is a weekly claims level over 400,000. This has existed
continuously in the data for over two years now. Eight months into 2010, the only difference from
the beginning of the year is that the four-week moving average is now 20,000 higher at 485,500.
...read article
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BLS Press Release MisReports August Jobs Data--Daryl
Montgomery--09/03/2010
According to the August jobs report, the U.S. lost another 54,000 jobs last month and the
67,000 jobs, although most of these jobs came from the Health Care and Social Assistance
category and from Education, both of which are filled with jobs supported by the agree
with the Data Tables and of course made things look better than they actually were.
The data in the non-farm payrolls report indicated that there were 40,200 jobs created in
the Health Care and Social Assistance category (the mainstream media almost always
leaves off the Social Assistance part, perhaps because these are so obviously
government and not private sector jobs). Interestingly the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
press release only admitted to 28,000 jobs and this incorrect number was picked up in
every mainstream media article. The BLS press release, which can be found at:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf, stated "Employment in health care
increased by 28,000 in August, with the largest gains occurring in ambulatory health care
services (+17,000) and hospitals (+9,000)". The Establishment Data Seasonally Adjusted
(Table B in the report), which can be found at:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm, stated that the number of jobs in Health
Care and Social Assistance increased by 40,200....read article
Montgomery--09/03/2010
According to the August jobs report, the U.S. lost another 54,000 jobs last month and the
67,000 jobs, although most of these jobs came from the Health Care and Social Assistance
category and from Education, both of which are filled with jobs supported by the agree
with the Data Tables and of course made things look better than they actually were.
The data in the non-farm payrolls report indicated that there were 40,200 jobs created in
the Health Care and Social Assistance category (the mainstream media almost always
leaves off the Social Assistance part, perhaps because these are so obviously
government and not private sector jobs). Interestingly the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
press release only admitted to 28,000 jobs and this incorrect number was picked up in
every mainstream media article. The BLS press release, which can be found at:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf, stated "Employment in health care
increased by 28,000 in August, with the largest gains occurring in ambulatory health care
services (+17,000) and hospitals (+9,000)". The Establishment Data Seasonally Adjusted
(Table B in the report), which can be found at:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm, stated that the number of jobs in Health
Care and Social Assistance increased by 40,200....read article